When the College Football Playoff rankings come out tonight, there could be a big dog who has been kicked off the porch — Alabama.

For the first time since the CFP began a few years ago, Roll Tide might be outside looking through the window at the party.

And it could be their own darn fault for scheduling cupcakes.

The Associated Press poll has Clemson at No. 1, followed by No. 2 Oklahoma, No. 3 Wisconsin and No. 4. Auburn in the top four. Alabama is fifth.

The CFP poll is the poll that counts, however.

Here’s how the CFP poll will likely shake out tonight:

1. Clemson

2. Oklahoma

3. Auburn

4. Wisconsin

Some experts are putting Auburn all the way up to No. 1 after they beat Alabama 26-14 Saturday, but the Tigers have two losses.

Clemson will likely be at No. 1 due to their tough schedule and wins over five Top 25 teams, including Auburn.

Oklahoma has wins over three top 25 teams, and over two who were ranked at one time. They also won at No. 2 Ohio State.

Both teams have bad losses, though. Clemson lost to Syracuse and Oklahoma lost to Iowa State.

Auburn is probably the hottest team right now, and will stay ahead of Alabama due to the head-to-head win. If Auburn beats Georgia in the SEC title, game, ‘Bama is out.

Wisconsin is the only unbeaten team in the Power 5 conferences, but haven’t really played any tough teams this year. If they beat Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, they will be in.

If all goes to form, with the favorites winning the conference title games, Alabama is out. That one loss was too much for a team that didn’t play much out of conference.

The season-opening win over Florida State looked good at the time, but the ‘Noles finished 6-6 and unranked with losses to Boston College, Louisville, and North Carolina State along the way.

Alabama also scheduled Fresno State, Colorado State and Mercer — none would be considered quality wins.

But like always, some team will get upset in the conference title game and Alabama will sneak back in there, even though they didn’t even make it to the SEC championship game.

This would have been a great year to have an eight-team playoff.

Maybe someday.

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